According to Amac News: The bank also forecast that the rate would increase to 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
According to the quarterly economic report released by the CBUAE today, GDP growth expectations for this year have been strengthened due to growth in the tourism, transportation, financial services and insurance, construction and real estate, as well as communications sectors.
Non-oil GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 increased to 4.8 percent year-on-year (YoY), compared to 4.0 percent in the previous quarter, reflecting faster growth in the manufacturing, trade, transportation and warehousing, and real estate activities industries.
Non-oil GDP growth is expected to remain at 4.9% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025, largely driven by the government’s strategic plans and policies to attract foreign investment and promote economic diversification.
16 Non-oil sectors continued to grow steadily in the third quarter of 2024. Wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and construction remain the main pillars of growth in the non-oil sector.
The manufacturing sector continued to attract more foreign direct investment (FDI) and expanded in line with various Emirati and federal strategies. The construction sector also witnessed strong growth in the first nine months of 2024.
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) signed by the UAE with various countries have strengthened the country’s trade relations. As a result, the UAE’s non-oil trade reached over AED 1.3 trillion in the first half of 2024, equivalent to 134% of the country’s GDP, an increase of 10.6% compared to the previous year, reflecting the success of the economic diversification program and strengthening relations with key trading partners.
In the first ten months of 2024, oil production averaged 2.9 million barrels per day and is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, increasing to 2.9% in 2025.
The UAE’s public sector financial performance remained strong in the first half of 2024, with the country seeing significant improvements in government revenues and fiscal surplus compared to the same period in 2023.
The fiscal surplus reached AED 65.7 billion, equivalent to 6.7 percent of GDP, an increase of 38.8 percent from AED 47.4 billion (5.1 percent of GDP) in the first half of 2023.
The government’s general revenue in the first half of 2024 increased by 6.9 percent year-on-year to AED 263.9 billion, equivalent to 26.9 percent of GDP, mainly due to a 22.4 percent increase in tax revenues.
The government’s general capital expenditure increased by 51.7 percent to AED 11 billion in the first half of 2024, reflecting the UAE government’s commitment to advancing major infrastructure projects and strengthening the country’s economic and investment prospects.
Economic activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector continues to grow, reflecting businesses’ continued confidence in the country’s economic outlook
In October 2024, the UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 54.1, reflecting continued optimism among local companies, driven by expectations for continued demand and sales, which are expected to support sustained growth in production. This positive outlook is also reinforced by the anticipation of future initiatives and investments.
In Dubai, the PMI reached 53.2 in October 2024, in line with the overall UAE index, reflecting continued growth in the emirate’s non-oil private sector.
The number of employees covered by the UAE Central Bank’s Wage Protection System (WPS) increased by 4.0% in September 2024 compared to the previous year, while average employee salaries increased by 7.2% compared to the previous year. These indicators of employment and wage growth point to strong domestic consumption and sustainable GDP growth going forward.